因燃油市场波动 沙特与伊拉克或对亚洲提升油价

【S&P Global网9月3日报道】普氏能源调查显示,预计沙特和伊拉克10月装运到亚洲的原油官方售价将大幅上涨,但由于燃油产品利润率波动,较重质原油的官方售价较难预测。沙特阿美石油公司(Saudi Aramco)将跟踪迪拜现货市场即月与次月期货市场之间的现货溢价,从而为每月运往亚洲的五种等级的原油定价。预计阿美石油公司和伊拉克石油销售企业SOMO公司将分别于9月5日和9月10日前后发布其官方售价。

Saudi Arabia, Iraq likely to raise crude OSPs to Asia amid volatile fuel oil cracks: traders

Singapore — Official selling prices for Saudi Arabian and Iraqi crude oils loading in October and headed to Asia are mostly expected to rise, but direction for heavier grades is trickier to predict due to fluctuating fuel oil product margins, a survey of market participants by S&P Global Platts showed this week.

"Looks like [the price differential for] Saudi Arab Light will be up 40 to 50 cents/b and [the spread between] light and heavy grades will be expanded due to weak fuel oil cracks this month," a crude trader said.

Backwardation in the benchmark Dubai cash/futures spread rose 45 cents/b on average between July and August, providing bullish cues for price setting from the OPEC kingpin and Iraq's SOMO, crude traders and refiners told Platts.

"I think Aramco might raise OSPs about 50 cents/b across the board. SOMO would be similar," said a trader with a Southeast Asian refiner.

Aramco is expected to release its OSPs toward the end of the week, around September 5. Iraq's SOMO is expected to do so by next week, around September 10.

However, survey participants were less certain about price direction for crude grades with higher fuel oil yields due to volatile fuel oil product cracks in recent weeks. Fuel oil cracks are "quite a puzzle," said a third trader, based in Singapore.

Some participants even said the accelerated drop in fuel oil margins may factor more heavily than the increase in backwardation for Dubai and Oman crude spreads, leading to more price cuts than hikes overall.

"For Saudi's [OSPs] we're expecting minor discounts in general and more discounts relative to the fuel oil yield," a refiner source in China said.

The FOB Singapore 380 CST fuel oil swap spread to Dubai sunk to an average of minus $10.24/b in August from minus $3.55/b in July, according to Platts data.

There was consensus around a 50 cent/b hike for Aramco's Arab Light crude oil, while the price differential for Arab Medium could be kept unchanged from September's OSP and that for Arab Heavy cut 50 cents/b month on month, survey participants said.

Iraq's SOMO is expected to follow suit, with the price differential for Basrah Light loading in October and destined to Asia emulating the price change for Arab Medium, the survey results showed.

However, the producer could cut its Asia OSP for Basrah Heavy owing to softer price differentials fetched for spot market cargoes of the grade last month, combined with declining fuel oil margins. Basrah Heavy has an API of 24 and a residual (fuel oil) yield of nearly 57%.

OSP METHODOLOGY 

Saudi Aramco is understood to track the backwardation between Platts front-month cash Dubai and second-month futures in setting the core direction of its five OSP crude grades destined for Asia every month. However, Aramco may also take into account other factors, such as product cracks. Saudi Arabia's OSP-linked grades do not trade in the spot market.

Saudi Aramco's OSPs for Asia are based on the average of Platts front-month cash Dubai and DME Oman. SOMO's OSPs for Asia-destined Basrah crudes are based on the average of Platts front-month cash Dubai and Oman assessments.

The spread between Dubai cash and swap has averaged $1.75/b to date in August, up 45 cents/b from $1.30/b in July, Platts data showed.

Platts cash Oman and Dubai assessments averaged $2.03/b in August, up 42 cents/b month on month.

The spread between Oman futures traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange and Platts cash Dubai assessments averaged $2.14/b in August, up 53 cents/b from $1.61/b in July.

Platts surveys a range of crude oil market participants across Asia for OSP expectations each month, comprising sellers, refiners and traders of Middle East crude oil in the region.

( 译者:丁阿雪  审校:刘会兰 )

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